This article develops a dynamical systems model to simulate the flows and loss mechanisms of fresh fruit bunches (FFB). Formulated as a system of differential equations, the model represents FFB stocks and associated flows while incorporating explicit loss terms. The existence of a unique and globally stable steady state, which represents the equilibrium proportion of total FFB loss, was proven. Subsequently, the parameterisation approach combines small-scale survey data from 27 smallholders in southern Thailand, which has the highest concentration of oil palm plantations, with assumption-driven values based on official statistical records, academic literature, and expert insights. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify the key drivers of FFB loss. This model-based analysis indicates that the most effective strategies for reducing FFB loss are those that focus on improving harvest efficiency while simultaneously optimising in-field operational practices, thereby supporting more sustainable palm oil supply chain management.

For further information, please download [Click]